⚗ Demonstration on synthetic data with known ground truth.
Customer journeys were simulated; each platform's own attribution rules (Meta 7d-click + 1d-view · Google click-based · TikTok 7d-click + 1d-view)
were then applied to generate what each platform would claim. The arithmetic below is the production reconciliation. On your data, this takes 14 days of read-only access.
The double-count map
Why the platforms' sum exceeds your order ledger — each mechanism, measured. The villain is structural double-claiming, not anyone's decisions.
Daily view — platform-claimed conversions vs orders on the ledger
Platform-claimed (sum of 3)Orders (Shopify ledger)
The waterfall — Gross Platform ROAS → Reconciled MER
Each step is an arithmetic deduction with its evidence class. The final step — verified incremental MER — requires geo-experiments (Phase 2) and is deliberately not claimed here.
Because this is synthetic: the answer key
On real data nobody has this panel — that's the point of experiments. Here we know the truth, so the method can be graded.
Every figure above ships as an interval, not a point. Fees are never contingent on findings.◈ THE INDEPENDENT REFEREE — verification seal (working title)